IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 13 matches to go, RCB surge to 99% as KKR crash to 2.6% - odds for each team explained

With 13 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT and RCB have almost qualified, while SRH would have to do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs. PBKS, too, remain in a good position to get there.

CSK and RR have a better-than-even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. KKR and DC have really slim chances. There remain 8,192 possible combinations of results, so nothing is certain yet for any of the eight teams remaining in the race.

We look at the probabilities:

How we arrive at the probabilities:

There are 8,192 possible combinations of results remaining with 13 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these combinations end with them being among the top four, either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two, either singly or jointly. For instance, DC finish in the top four in just 220 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a mere 2.7% chance of being among the top four — and even that is jointly, not singly.